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Part IV: Budget Analysis Series

Budget 2026-27: The Verdict: Promises Made, Promises Pending, and the Questions Nobody Is Asking

On February 1, 2026, Hon'ble Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Union Budget 2026-27 with INR 1.39 lakh crore for education, an 8.27% increase, and a landmark INR 60,000 crore PM SETU initiative for ITI transformation. She did this while navigating a genuinely difficult fiscal landscape: an 84% debt-to-GDP ratio (Centre + States), a rupee under persistent pressure, and interest payments that now exceed capital expenditure by INR 1.82 lakh crore. Credit is due for fiscal discipline under these constraints. However, the story of any budget is not only in what gets announced, it is in what gets absorbed on the ground. The Revised Estimates for FY26, contained in the budget's supporting documents, reveal that INR 11,354 crore allocated to five flagship education schemes in Budget 2025-26 remained unspent. Across the broader government, over INR 1.26 lakh crore in scheme allocations could not be fully deployed between Budget Day and year-end. The Economic Survey 2025-26, released a day before the budget, flagged that 75% of higher education institutions lack industry-readiness. This article, the fourth and final instalment of our budget analysis series, offers a constructive assessment of what worked, what fell short, and what India can do to strengthen the bridge between intent and impact.

Let us begin with what the Hon'ble Finance Minister got right, and it is a longer list than the headlines suggest. Budget 2026-27 responded to several of the asks this series has tracked across its previous three parts. The Ministry of Education allocation rose from INR 1,28,650 crore to INR 1,39,289 crore, with higher education receiving an 11.28% boost to INR 55,727 crore. The PM SETU initiative, upgrading 1,000 government ITIs through an industry-led hub-and-spoke model, is the most structurally ambitious skilling intervention in a decade. The High-Powered 'Education to Employment and Enterprise' Standing Committee signals institutional recognition that the skills-employment pipeline needs strengthening. And the 62% jump in the Ministry of Skill Development budget to INR 9,886 crore reflects genuine commitment.

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