Pre-Emerging Market Analysis: Zero Private PBSA Sector Represents Greenfield First-Mover Opportunity
624K students, 31.5K international (target 100K by 2028), only 29% accommodation rate — Central Asia's most untapped student housing market.
Key performance indicators for the Kazakhstan student accommodation sector — NO private PBSA exists
100% university dormitories — no private PBSA sector
Total supply: 365,900 beds | Non-resident students: 336,400
Dorms $40-100 vs Private rentals $300+ — massive affordability gap
Up to 70% of students cannot get accommodation in critical regions
Dormitory bed gap analysis across Kazakhstan's major student cities
| City | Non-Res Students | Dorm Beds | Provision | Unmet Demand | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almaty | 123,500 | 28,000 | 22.7% | 95,500 | 🔴 CRITICAL |
| Astana | 51,900 | 22,000 | 42.4% | 29,900 | 🔴 CRITICAL |
| Shymkent | 28,500 | 8,500 | 29.8% | 20,000 | 🟡 HIGH |
| Karaganda | 18,000 | 8,000 | 44.4% | 10,000 | 🟡 HIGH |
| Aktobe | 12,000 | 3,600 | 30.0% | 8,400 | 🟡 HIGH |
| Atyrau | 4,500 | 4,480 | 99.6% | 20 | 🟢 BALANCED |
Al-Farabi leads with 20K students (4K international)
Organized 26% vs Unorganized 74% — NO private PBSA
First time Asian students (India, China) outnumber CIS countries — government targets 100K by 2028
India leads with 8.5K students (primarily medicine)
UK universities establishing presence — premium segment growth
Almaty — 500 students, 100 international
Almaty — 400 students, 80 international
Almaty — 300 students, 60 international
Growing ecosystem attracting premium students
Government focused on attracting students, not housing — creates private sector opportunity
Study in Kazakhstan program driving demand, but no housing investment
International student attraction — target 100K by 2028
23 partnerships, 5+ campuses — premium segment
Attracting foreign campus construction investment
Academic partners as strategic investors — incentives
New dorms planned but not keeping pace with demand
First-mover advantage but category creation required
First-mover greenfield opportunity in Central Asia's largest student market
No existing private PBSA — need to create and market the category from scratch
Target international + medical students willing to pay premium over dorms
Almaty (largest gap), Astana (growing intl) — avoid Atyrau (oil already met)
Partner with foreign university branches for demand guarantee
Zero private PBSA sector = greenfield first-mover opportunity; 140K additional beds needed at 70% accommodation target
| Factor | Assessment | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Size | 624K students; 336K non-resident | 4/5 | Substantial base |
| Undersupply | Only 29% can be accommodated | 5/5 | Crisis level |
| Growth | 7.5% non-resident YoY | 4/5 | Strong momentum |
| Intl Growth | 31K → 100K target by 2028 | 5/5 | Tripling planned |
| Competition | Zero — no sector exists | 5/5 | First mover |
| Affordability | Dorms $50 vs Private $300+ | 3/5 | Premium only |
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